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Retailers' festive fears

The move to slash interest rates this week as the economy veers towards recession looks unlikely to salvage a miserable year for the UK high street.

This bleak verdict from several retail experts comes despite the Bank of England's 0.5% cut on Wednesday - its largest reduction in seven years.

The crucial Christmas season is fast approaching, but consumers are squeezed by rising food and energy bills.

Corporate recovery firm Begbies Traynor has put 323 retail firms on its "critical watch" list in danger of going under in the consumer gloom.

Other headwinds for retailers have meanwhile been posed by a higher tax bill since April.

Experts in the retail sector are now casting their eye over which firms may yet enjoy a happy Christmas as others face a festive sales crisis.

The 0.5% rate cut has hardly inspired analysts into an immediate reassessment of the sector's fortunes.

Numis Securities retail analyst Andy Wade said the cut was "like putting the car into reverse when you've just driven it off a cliff".

"There is more unemployment, people struggling to hang on to houses and less discretionary income - on top of that there is a crisis in confidence."

Some retailers have reported positive recent trading figures including food delivery group Domino's Pizza - as people cut down on eating out.

Fashion firm Ted Baker and clothing online retailer ASOS have given a few shafts of light among the clouds.

But the news has been mostly grim - so much so that a fall in like-for-like sales of more than 6% from Marks & Spencer was well-received by investors.

There is now a huge question mark hanging over the prospects for the festive season, which makes up the lion's share of many chains' profits.

Pali International analyst Nick Bubb expects shoppers to rein in their spending heavily.

"Given the shock to the consumer from the banking crisis and the housing crash, it will be a Christmas where it is fashionable to be frugal."

Andy Wade, at Numis, says specialists like Game Group will have a good season thanks to top-selling video games while food sales will also remain steady.

But a tough Christmas for the mid-market chains could be in prospect because many squeezed shoppers are trading down to budget rivals.

Sales of home goods have also plunged as the financial crisis grabs the headlines and house prices crash.

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